Beware! World Oil Ration Again After 100 Years

Washington - The world will run out of fuel in 100 years, before new energy sources substitute available. 'Nightmare' that would be true if the use of oil and the development of new fuel just like today.
According to a study from researchers at the University of California, Davis (UC-Davis), published by Environmental Science and Technology was quoted as saying by the AFP on Tuesday (11/16/2010).

The researchers used the latest share prices from oil companies and the company predicted bakan alternative fuel for fuel when a replacement will be ready to fill the void left when oil reserves run out. And the study shows there is no adequate backup.

According to the study, if the world oil reserves as estimated in 2008 reached 1.332 trillion barrels and consumption survive at 85.22 million barrels per day and grew 1.3% per year, then the oil will run out in 2041.


However, by incorporating the latest stock prices into a complex equation, Professor tekni UC-Davis, Debbie Niemeier and Natalya Malyshkina researchers calculate the available alternative fuels will not be enough until mid-next century.

The researchers analyze, share prices of oil 25 companies listed on U.S. exchanges, Europe and Australia and 44 companies that produce alternative energy fuels such as ethanol or biodiesel, etc.. They found that market capitalization or total value of all shares of the traditional oil companies are very much left the company's alternative energy.

This indicates to them that investors believe oil will remain good in the short run and take a larger market share in the energy market rather than alternative energy.

"To set the time until the oil fraction that can be considered can be replaced by alternative fuels, we use a more advanced price calculations so that the difference between the oil company's market capitalization between traditional and alternative energy companies could make sense," said Malyshkina like

Their calculations indicate that there will be no substitute for petroleum-based fuels that are abundantly available until the year 2140. If using the calculation is optimistic the new oil will be exhausted in 2054, there will be difference of about 90 years, which would be difficult to find fuel to run vehicles. According Malyshkina, about two-thirds of the crude oil into gasoline and diesel produced is used to run vehicles.

Calculation of researchers based on the theory that long-term investors are the good pemrediksi when new technology becomes biasar.

"Investors are very experienced considerations tend to put effort into collecting, processing and understanding information relevant to the future flow of funds paid by the securities. As a result, the market projections of future events represent the consensus forecast in a large number of investors, tend to be relatively accurate, "clear Malyshkina.

However, the study could probably not happen considering the possibility of oil consumption will decline as the number of energy saving programs and new oil reserves will increase because of improved extraction techniques. Similarly, the existence of alternative fuel from government agencies that quite a lot and do not fit in the stock market.

Source : Detik